Predicting the Season (Playoff Teams and Awards)
In a relative fools errand I went ahead and gave my picks for how I see the season unfolding. I am no betting master (and the lines are way too sharp right now anyways, make your over/unders in July/August not September), but this is what I would bet on if I could.
I tried to highlight my favorite picks based on team over/unders. I laid the teams out in the order that I expect them to finish in the division and put asterisks next to the playoff teams. Super Bowl pick below, but I'm sure the picture above as a bit of a giveaway.
NFC EAST
*Cowboys- Over 9.5 wins, +750 to win the conference, -121 to win the division
Eagles- Under 9 wins
Giants- Under 6 wins
Football Teamers- Under 5 wins
NFC North
*Vikings- Over 9 wins, +160 to win the division
*Packers- Over 8.5 wins
Lions- Over 6.5 wins
Bears- Under 7.5 wins
NFC South
*Bucs- Over 9.5 wins, +150 to win the division
*Saints- Under 10.5 wins
Falcons- Over 7.5 wins
Panthers- Under 5.5 wins
NFC West
*49er’s- Under 10.5 wins, -106 to win the division
*Rams- Over 8 wins
Seahawks- Under 9.5 wins
Cardinals- Under 7 wins
AFC East
*Patriots- Over 8.5 wins, +130 to win the division
Bills- Over 8.5 wins
Dolphins- Under 6.5 wins
Jets- Under 6.5 wins
AFC North
*Ravens- Over 11 wins, -225 to win the division
*Steelers- Over 9 wins
*Browns- Over 8.5 wins
Bengals- Under 5.5 wins
AFC South
*Colts- Over 9 wins, +120 to win the division
*Titans- Over 8.5 wins
Texans- Under 7.5 wins
Jags- Under 4.5 wins
AFC West
*Chiefs- Over 11.5 wins, +280 to win the conference -590 to win the division
Chargers- Under 7.5 wins
Broncos- Under 7.5 wins
Raiders- Under 7 wins
NFC Championship: Cowboys over Bucs
AFC Championship: Chiefs over Ravens
Super Bowl: Chiefs over Cowboys
MVP: Patrick Mahomes +300 (He’s the favorite)
Others with fun odds: Dak +1400, Brady +1600, Goff +8000, Haskins +15000
The non-QB division: Zeke +10,000, Henry +5000, Chase Young +50,000
The MVP almost always comes from the QB of the first or second seed. To that end it makes sense to pick the QB’s of the best teams in the league. If Dak gets the Cowboys to a top seed then I think he could win as a “fresh face” after Mahomes and Lamar won the last two years respectively.
Haskins is my favorite super dark horse, because there is a world where he takes a monumental jump in year two (similar to Lamar’s jump) and that Washington front seven gives other teams enough fits that the Football Teamers make the playoffs. In that scenario I could see Haskins jumping ahead of the “boring” top options as a narrative play for the surprising team that made the playoffs. I bet the under on 5 wins so I’m not betting on it, but I see the path that could lead to him winning.
Offensive ROY: Joe Burrow, +300
After Kyler won this over Josh Jacobs last year I just don’t see a world where it doesn’t go to a QB. Voters are too conditioned to favor the position. I think CEH is going to have a monster year, but I think the Bengals see solid improvement in their win total and Burrow is going to look good in that offense.
Defensive ROY: Chase Young, +200
Patrick Queen (+900) could get some love from voters as he’ll be on a playoff team, but I don’t see anyone competing with Young.
Defensive POTY: Aaron Donald, +800
If Aaron Donald is alive I feel like this is his award to lose. Especially after losing out to Gilmore last year. The Rams should be better this season which will garner the All World DT the needed votes to win again. TJ Watt (+1500), Shaw Barrett (+3300) and Gilmore (+3300) are my next men up.
Comeback POTY: Cam Newton, +300
Picking all the favorites is boring, but I think Cam is going to have an awesome season, lead the Pats to the division title and be a top fantasy QB. It will be hard for Big Ben (+350), AJ Green (+2500) or Gronk (+1100) to catch him. The wild card is Alex Smith (+400) who could win the award without playing a snap.
Coach of the Year: Mike McCarthy, +1300
The team with the biggest turn-around from last year. I think the Cowboys are going o run laps around the field on offense and McCarthy will get credit for turning those tight losses into wins.
Other good candidates: Arians (+1200), Reid (+1400), Belichick w/o Brady (+1400), Reich (+2000)
Passing Yards Leaders:
Dak (+650)
Mahomes (+500)
Ryan (+550)
Wentz (+2500)
Roethlisberger (+2000)
Rushing Yards Leaders:
Zeke (+900)
Henry (+800)
Jacobs (+1400)
Cook (+1400)
RoJo (+6000)
Receiving Yards Leaders:
Tyreek Hill (+2000)
Davante Adams (+1400)
JuJu (+2000)
Michael Thomas (+500)
Julio Jones (+900)
Will Fuller (+8000)
Michael Gallup (+5000)
Marquise Brown (+8000)
Terry McLaurin (+2500)
Adam Thielen (+2500)
Diontae Johnson (couldn’t find odds)